Identifying Ecological Security Patterns Meeting Future Urban Expansion in Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan Urban Agglomeration, China

Ecological security patterns (ESPs) provide a solution for balancing the conflicts between ecological conservation and socio-economic development and maintaining sustainable regional development. Identifying sustainable ESPs should be a matter given attention to in order to meet future urban expansion needs. Based on multi-source eco-environmental datasets and remote sensing (RS) containing the history of land-use patterns, our study incorporated future land-use patterns into the ESP identification framework to reduce the potential impact of future urban expansion on the identified ESPs (i.e., ecological corridors and nodes) and to reserve space for future urban development from an urban development perspective. Considering the Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan (CZX) urban agglomeration, the results show that 57 corridors are extracted, within which 36 key corridors are mainly distributed in the Lukou and Wangcheng districts and Xiangtan and Changsha counties; an additional 21 potential corridors are mainly distributed in the urban built-up area and these corridors connect to Xiangjiang River or its tributary. In addition, 18 pinch points were identified, mainly located adjacent to the Xiangjiang River, Liuyang River, and Laodao River; 9 barrier points are distributed at the junctions of the main roads. A comparison of ESP identification with and without simulated land-use patterns showed the incorporation of future land-use patterns favoured sustainable ESP construction. Furthermore, we discuss the rationality and application of ESP identification from an urban development perspective and emphasize the trade-off between future land-use patterns and ecological conservation, better reflecting the forward-looking thinking of spatial planning.