Trade‐offs and synergistic relationships on soil‐related ecosystem services in Central Asia under land use and land cover change

Abstract Due to climate change and human activities, land desertification, a major environmental issue in arid regions, has exerted an impact on ecosystem services (ES). However, previous ES assessments in arid regions lacked the integrated assessment and trade‐off analysis of soil‐related ecosystem services (S‐ES). To address this, we developed a S‐ES‐Bayesian network (S‐ES‐BN) model to analyze the trade‐offs and synergies between the complex relationships between S‐ES and their multiple influences in Central Asia (CA). The results showed that (1) there is a large spatial and temporal heterogeneity in S‐ES, with the most significant changes in water yield service (WY, −30%) and soil conservation service (SC, −26%) in the past 30 years (1990–2020); (2) land use and land cover change (LUCC) area shifts can have a gaining or weakening effect on the S‐ES. Among them, water to wetland had the most obvious gain effect on SC (+5.1 t·km 2 ·yr −1 ) and water to forestland had the most pronounced effect on carbon fixation service (CF, +251.22 t); and (3) based on the S‐ES‐BN, an optimal configuration of S‐ES in CA demonstrated that the intensification of a future “warming and wetting” scenario in CA might lead to significant decreases in WY (−37%) and sand fixation (−7%). In addition, the clarification of the land allocation structure (cropland, forestland, and grassland) in LUCC will enhance the spatial demand for CF.