Nomogram to Predict Good Collateral Formation After the STA-MCA Bypass Surgery in Adult Patients With Moyamoya Disease

Background: Collateral formation from the extracranial carotid artery to ischemic brain tissue determines the clinical success of superficial temporal artery (STA) to middle cerebral artery (MCA) bypass surgery in adult patients with moyamoya disease, but postoperative collateral formation (PCF) after STA-MCA bypass surgery is unpredictable. Accurate preoperative prediction of acceptable PCF could improve patient selection. This study aims to develop a prediction nomogram model for PCF in this patient population. Methods: Adult patients with moyamoya disease undergoing the STA-MCA bypass surgery between January 2013 and December 2020 at a single institution were retrospectively or prospectively enrolled in this observational study. Data including potential clinical and radiological predictors were obtained from hospital records. A nomogram was generated based on a multivariate logistic regression analysis, to identify potential predictors associated with good PCF. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated for discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. Results: Data from 243 patients with moyamoya disease who underwent the STA-MCA bypass surgery were analyzed to build the nomogram. After 1-year follow-up, 162 (66.7%) hemispheres had good PCF and 81 (33.3%) had poor PCF. Good PCF is associated with 3 preoperative factors: age at operation, a diameter of donor branch of STA, and the preinfarction period stage. Incorporating these 3 factors, the model achieved a concordance index of 0.88 (95% CI, 0.84–0.92) and had a well-fitted calibration curve and good clinical application value. A cutoff value of 100 was determined to predict good PCF via this nomogram. Conclusions: The nomogram exhibits high accuracy in predicting good PCF after the STA-MCA bypass surgery in adult patients with moyamoya disease and may allow surgeons to better evaluate preoperatively candidacy for successful bypass surgery.