Estimating the yield potential of short-rotation willow in Canada using the 3PG model

The ability to predict short-rotation coppice (SRC) willow productivity for a given region would be very helpful for large-scale deployment of this crop. The objectives of this study were to calibrate and validate the 3PG model for two commonly used clones (SX64 and SX67) and to provide yield potential estimates for 16 sites across Canada. One dataset for each clone, including leaf area index (LAI) and stem biomass, was used for calibrating parameters controlling leaf and stem growth. All other datasets, coming from eight different willow plantations, were used for model validation. Model performance was good in predicting stem biomass for the SX64 (normalized mean error (NME) = –8%, normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) = 22%) and SX67 (NME = –3%, NRMSE = 16%) clones. Predictions were more scattered for LAI, with NRMSE close to 35% and 33% and NME of 1% and 8% for SX64 and SX67, respectively. The simulation results show that the greatest yields were obtained with the three-year rotation for the SX67 clone, whereas a two-year rotation seemed to be more appropriate for the SX64 clone. The simulation results also show that growing degree-days had a significant impact on yield potential, which varied from 10.5 to 16.5 t DM·ha −1 for SX64 and from 7.5 to 11.5 t DM·ha −1 for SX67.