Prediction Study on the Urbanization Trends of China

China's urbanization rate exceeded the turning point 50% in 2011.International experience shows that the urbanization rate of 50%-70% interval is the urbanization deceleration period,so the future of Chinese urbanization will be turned from acceleration to deceleration.This change will have an important impact on the Chinese urbanization trend,urban development and urban system structure.This paper reviews the urbanization rate of relevant research results,gives a brief description of the history of Chinese urbanization and predicts the urbanization rate by using a variety of methods.The results show that from 2011 to 2050 China's urbanization growth will slow down.If calculated according to three kinds of forecasting methods,an average growth rate will be 0.793 percentage points in 2020.By 2030,2040 and 2050,the urbanization rate will be 60.34%,68.38%,75.37% and 81.63% respectively.