Spatiotemporal evolution and determinants of urban land use efficiency under green development orientation: Insights from 284 cities and eight economic zones in China, 2005–2019

Green development is essential for improving urban land use efficiency (ULUE) as it seeks to optimize resource utilization and minimize waste and pollution. However, a long-term evolution of ULUE and its determinants under the context of green development are less discussed in existing studies. Drawing on remote sensing and statistical data and utilizing the super efficiency slack-based model (SBM) and the geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model, this study evaluates green development-oriented ULUE and its spatiotemporal associations with determinants across 284 cities and eight economic zones in China from 2005 to 2019. We found that the green development-oriented ULUE in China generally increased in 15 years (from 0.404 to 0.55), with higher levels in coastal and northwestern regions than in central regions. Besides, per capita GDP, investment in technology and science, and degree of openness generally contributed to ULUE (over 75% observations showed positive coefficients), while investment in real estate had a negative impact on ULUE. The impact of industrial structure on ULUE experienced a transition from positive to negative in northern and eastern cities, with the highest coefficient decreasing from 0.194 in 2005 to −0.032 in 2019. Population density contributed to ULUE in southern and northwestern cities during 2005–2010 (coefficients ranging from 0.008 to 0.198), while it negatively influenced ULUE in most cities since 2015 (coefficients ranging from −0.009 to −0.283). The correlation between nighttime light, per capita road, and ULUE showed noticeable south-north differentiation. Our study provides valuable guidelines for Tailor-made strategies of efficient urban management towards sustainable urbanization.