Are the Main Drivers of Ecological Vulnerability in Typical Arid Zones Natural or Anthropogenic? An Analysis From an Evolutionary Process Framework

ABSTRACT As a key indicator of regional sustainable development, in‐depth study of ecological vulnerability (EV) is conducive to the realization of precise ecological protection. However, the complexity of the regional environment causes the driving mechanism of EV to be difficult to clarify, particularly for areas with special natural climates. This study developed a comprehensive natural‐social‐economic‐pollution‐environmental (NSEPE) index system and analytical framework for typical arid areas, revealing EV's spatiotemporal heterogeneity and driving factors. Based on structural equation modeling, the spatial driving mechanism of the dominant factors was clarified. Finally, the spatial heterogeneity of EV in 2035 under different scenarios was predicted using the CA‐Markov model. The results indicated that: (1) Ecological vulnerability grades exhibited a southeast‐northwest increasing trend (2000–2020), with 9.6% areas transitioning from high to low vulnerability. (2) The three factors of precipitation, farmers' income, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were the most important factors causing EV in the study area. (3) Sustainable development scenarios better support ecological protection and human‐nature harmony by predicting for 2035. This study can quantitatively identify the law of spatial heterogeneity of EV and its influencing factors, and also provides a feasible idea for EV evolution in areas with complex natural environments and frequent human activities.