Prediction of ecological security patterns based on urban expansion: A case study of Chengdu

Urbanisation affects the health and stability of ecosystem significantly. Constructing a scientific ecological security pattern (ESP) is of paramount importance for safeguarding the health of ecosystems within a region, optimising ecological spaces, and ensuring sustainability. To investigate the effect of urbanisation on the ESP, we utilised the Vigour–Organisation–Resilience-Services (VORS) model to analyse the changes in ecosystem health (EH) and identify degraded areas in the city of Chengdu. In this case study. We used the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) Model to predict the urban expansion trends in 2035 and evaluate the changing ESP. Additionally, we used the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model and circuit theory to construct an ecological network to facilitate multilayer planning of ESP. We identified an ecological source area of approximately 4484.29 km2 and a recovery zone of 1608.35 km2 for managing EH degradation within the ecological source. An ecological conservation zone of 987.48 km2 with restricted development outside the ecological source, and a restoration zone of 71.66 km2 to mitigate the impact of urban expansion on ecological security were also identified. Seven stable corridors with consistent spatial patterns and pressure levels and six potential corridors await restoration. Based on the analysis of changes in ecosystem health and dynamic ESPs, different scenarios were simulated for 2035. The findings suggested significant variations in EH and ESP around 2010 despite rapid expansion in Chengdu. The ecological environment was partially restored by increasing the land area and controlling its contraction. Therefore, scientific planning of ESPs, limiting the boundaries of urban expansion, and accurately assessing the health of ecosystems are crucial for ensuring ecological security.