Risk Analysis of Ship Methanol Bunkering Operation Based on Cloud Model

In view of uncertainty and ambiguity in the risk assessment process of ship methanol bunkering operation, a risk assessment model for ship methanol bunkering operation based on cloud model theory was proposed. Firstly, according to the process and risks of ship methanol bunkering operation, an evaluation index system had been established which contained personnel status, mooring operation, and bunkering operation and so on. Secondly, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to calculate weight of indicators, and cloud characteristic parameters of each indicator were calculated by expert scoring and reverse cloud generator. Combined with weights and cloud characteristic parameters, comprehensive cloud characteristic parameters were calculated to generate a comprehensive cloud map. Finally, risk grade was determined by comparing comprehensive cloud with evaluation level standard cloud. Case study showed that the risk of ship methanol bunkering operation was medium and it was generally consistent with the actual situation of methanol bunkering operation. The result shows that the risk of ship methanol bunkering operation can be relatively accurately evaluated by the model, and it can provide support for safety of ship methanol bunkering operation.