均方误差
计算机科学
平均绝对百分比误差
代表(政治)
核(代数)
管道(软件)
数据挖掘
智能交通系统
人工智能
卷积神经网络
流量(计算机网络)
人工神经网络
一般化
路径(计算)
机器学习
核密度估计
算法
近似误差
外部数据表示
模式识别(心理学)
数据建模
流量(数学)
均方预测误差
合成数据
随机游动
探测器
作者
PeiYe Chen,Fumin Zou,Qiqin Cai,Yongyu Luo,LinWen Jiang,XinWei Chen
摘要
Precise traffic-flow forecasting underpins modern intelligent transport and traffic management. To counter the limited ability of current approaches to mine multi-resolution temporal patterns and bidirectional sequential relations, we introduce a hybrid highway-volume prediction architecture that couples multi-scale convolutional blocks with a bidirectional long short-term memory network. The pipeline embraces three stages: data cleaning, multi-scale CNN-BiLSTM representation learning, and multi-step-ahead forecasting. Parallel convolutions with kernel sizes 3, 5 and 7 first harvest localized dynamics at diverse temporal resolutions; a BiLSTM then encodes both past and future contexts, yielding accurate predictions for lead times of 15, 30, 45 and 60 min. Evaluations on real freeway detector data show robust performance across all horizons: average R² = 0.9329, RMSE = 13.20, MAE = 10.12 and MAPE = 13.75%. The 30-min forecast achieves the best fit, delivering R² = 0.9356, RMSE = 12.95, MAE = 9.85 and MAPE = 12.97%. Ablation tests confirm the individual value of the multi-scale CNN and BiLSTM modules, raising R² by 8.06% over a plain LSTM baseline. Relative to ARIMA, XGBoost and CNN-Transformer, the proposed model ranks first on every examined metric.
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