可预测性
水槽(地理)
环境科学
碳汇
气候学
纬度
二氧化碳
大气科学
碳循环
碳通量
海洋学
气候变化
地质学
生态学
地理
生物
统计
生态系统
地图学
数学
大地测量学
作者
LI Hong-mei,Tatiana Ilyina,Wolfgang A. Müller,Peter Landschützer
出处
期刊:Science Advances
[American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)]
日期:2019-04-05
卷期号:5 (4)
被引量:30
标识
DOI:10.1126/sciadv.aav6471
摘要
Strong decadal variations in the oceanic uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) observed over the past three decades challenge our ability to predict the strength of the ocean carbon sink. By assimilating atmospheric and oceanic observational data products into an Earth system model-based decadal prediction system, we can reproduce the observed variations of the ocean carbon uptake globally. We find that variations of the ocean CO2 uptake are predictable up to 2 years in advance globally, albeit there is evidence for a higher predictive skill up to 5 years regionally. We further suggest that while temperature variations largely determine shorter-term (<3 years) predictability, nonthermal drivers are responsible for longer-term (>3 years) predictability, especially at high latitudes.
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