The trend and features of the doctor workforce supply in China after the national medical licensing system reform from 2005–15: a longitudinal analysis

Abstract Background The annual number of newly licensed doctors is an important indicator of medical workforce supply, which can accurately reflect an inflow into the health-care market during a time period. Since the implementation of the Law on Practicing Doctors in 1999, the Chinese Government has established its medical licensure system to both regulate medical professions and improve the quality of health-care services. We aimed to analyse the trend and structure of newly licensed doctors since the establishment of its medical licensure system. Methods We analysed a unique census dataset that provides the headcount of newly licensed doctors in China between 2005 and 2015. We also review a short history of medical licensing system reform in China since the 1990s. Findings The annual number of first-time licensed doctors in China increased from 159 489 in 2005 to 221 639 in 2015. Until 2015, more than 50% of newly licensed doctors had not received equivalent medical education of a bachelor degree or higher. In 2005, about 51% of China's newly licensed doctors were women, whereas in 2015, 56% newly licensed doctors were women. Interpretation Our findings could inform policy making in human resources for health in at least two aspects. First, the heterogeneity of medical education of entering doctors needs to draw more attention of policy makers. The second policy implication is, however, that the feminisation of physician in China is becoming more apparent, and the consequences still require more rigorous examinations. Funding None.