Predictability of marine ecosystems in a changing climate

Ecosystem predictability is the basis for ecosystem management. To study the influence of climate on the variability and predictability of marine ecosystems, various climate indices are related to ecosystem descriptors. Various aspects influencing ecosystem predictability are being discussed. It is shown that predictability of marine ecosystems is altered by large-scale transitions in the atmosphere. A multivariate climate descriptor is developed to compensate for the increase in non-linearity due to a regime shift in 2001/2002 and the resulting decrease in predictability.