Prediction Model for POstoperative atriaL fibrillAtion in caRdIac Surgery: The POLARIS Score

Background: New-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is the most common complication after cardiac surgery, occurring approximately in one-third of the patients. This study considered all-comer patients who underwent cardiac surgery to build a predictive model for POAF. Methods: A total of 3467 (Center 1) consecutive patients were used as a derivation cohort to build the model. The POLARIS score was then derived proportionally from the odds ratios obtained following multivariable logistic regression (MLR). The Brier Score, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and the Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to validate the model. Then, 2272 (Center 2) consecutive patients were used as an external validation cohort. Results: In the overall population (n = 5739), POAF occurred in 32.7% of patients. MLR performed in the derivation cohort showed that age, obesity, chronic renal failure, pulmonary hypertension, minimally invasive surgery, and aortic and mitral valve surgery were predictors of POAF. The derived POLARIS score was used to further stratify the population into four risk clusters: low (1.5–3), intermediate (3.5–5), high (5.5–7), and very high (7.5–9), each progressively showing an increase in POAF incidence. This was confirmed in a correlation analysis (Spearman’s rho: 0.636). Conclusions: The POLARIS score is a simple-to-use tool to stratify patients at higher risk of POAF. Precise identification of such patients might be used to implement clinical practice with the introduction of preoperative antiarrhythmic prophylaxis, further reducing the incidence of POAF and, potentially, its clinical sequelae, despite further investigations being warranted to test this model in prospective studies.