Epidemiological trends and forecasts in stroke at global, regional and national levels

Stroke, characterized as ischemic or hemorrhagic, leads to severe morbidity, mortality, and recurrence. This research analyzed stroke epidemiological trends from 1990-2021. The Global Burden of Disease database provided stroke data including incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Age-standardized rates (ASRs) and Estimated Annual Percent Changes (EAPC) measured incidence and mortality shifts. The sociodemographic index (SDI) was explored alongside stroke burden. Forecasting of stroke trends until 2035 utilized the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model. The factors influencing the variability of stroke burden were subjected to decomposition analysis for a more in-depth examination. Additionally, frontier analysis was employed to visually illustrate the opportunities for alleviating burden in each nation or region, taking into account their respective stages of development.This study utilized the slope index of inequality (SII) and the concentration index, as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO), to assess absolute and relative inequalities in disease burden. From 1990-2021, global stroke incidence increased by 15.03%, with an overall decline in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR). Lower in females than males, the incidence rise was larger in females. Stroke mortality declined by 2.60% overall, with a rise in male mortality and decrease in female mortality. DALYs increased, with a 10.67% decline by rate per 100,000 people. Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and East Asia experienced the highest incidence rates, with the greatest ASIR decline in the high-income Asia Pacific region. The decomposition analysis revealed a notable rise in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) within the middle Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) quintile region, where factors such as aging and population growth were identified as primary contributing elements. Additionally, the frontier analysis indicated that nations or regions categorized within higher SDI quintiles are likely to exhibit greater potential for improvement. Projections for 2035 anticipate increased stroke cases alongside further ASIR and ASMR declines. Cross-country inequality analysis suggests that both absolute and relative health inequalities associated with the stroke burden have escalated during the period from 1990 to 2021. Despite rising global stroke incidence and DALYs, decreases were seen in ASIR and ASMR since 1990. Incidence rates increased most quickly in females, with regional variation observable. High systolic blood pressure remained a key risk factor. Future efforts should target prevention and treatment to mitigate sex, age, and regional stroke disparities.