Divergent changes in crop yield loss risk due to droughts over time in the US

Abstract Drought poses a major threat to agricultural production and food security. This study evaluates the changes in drought-induced crop yield loss risk for six crops (alfalfa, barley, corn, soybean, spring wheat, and winter wheat) between 1971–2000 and 1991–2020 across the contiguous US. Using a copula-based probabilistic framework, our results reveal a spatially heterogeneous change in yield risk to meteorological droughts, which varies with crop types. Regional analyses identify the largest temporal decline in yield risk in the Southeast and Upper Midwest, while the Northwest and South show an increase in risk. Among the considered anthropogenic and climatic drivers of crop productivity, changes in climatic variables such as high temperatures (e.g., killing degree days), vapor pressure deficit and precipitation show significantly stronger associations with changes in yield risk than irrigated area and nitrogen fertilizer application. Among the counties that observe drier drought events, only 55% exhibit an increase in crop yield loss risk due to drier droughts. The rest 45% show a decrease in yield loss risk due to mediation of favorable climatic and anthropogenic factors. Alarmingly, more than half (for barley and spring wheat), and one-third (for alfalfa, corn, soybean and winter wheat) of that the risk increasing regions have outsized influence on destabilizing national crop production. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, agricultural stakeholders, and decision-makers in terms of the potential ways and locations to be prioritized for enhancing local and national agricultural resilience and ensuring food security.