Long-Term Prospective Cohort Study of Cervical Cancer Screening Using Triage of Women Who Are Human Papillomavirus–Positive With Dual Stain and Human Papillomavirus Genotyping

PURPOSE: Primary human papillomavirus (HPV) testing has the best tradeoff of benefits and harms for cervical screening but requires triage to determine management among HPV positives. We conducted a prospective observational study to evaluate triage of women who are HPV-positive using dual stain (DS) and HPV genotyping. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We included 9,645 consecutive women who are HPV-positive undergoing cervical screening in two periods between 2015 and 2017 in the organized cervical screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California. Absolute risk and clinical performance of DS and cytology for detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 and greater (CIN3+) were estimated overall and by HPV genotype and by age. Cumulative absolute risk of CIN3+ was modeled over 5 years using a prevalence-incidence mixture model, which allows estimating risk accounting for differences in disease ascertainment, surveillance intervals, and compliance. RESULTS: < .001). DS had better triage performance compared with cytology in all age groups and in women positive for HPV types other than HPV16 or HPV18. CONCLUSION: Long-term reassurance of low risk among DS negatives suggests that DS detects molecular changes earlier in the carcinogenic pathway than cytology. DS has better risk stratification than cytology overall, within HPV risk strata, and across all screening age groups and is a better option for triage of vaccinated populations.