Deceleration of Cropland-N2O Emissions in China and Future Mitigation Potentials

Agricultural soils are the largest anthropogenic emission source of nitrous oxide (N₂O). National agricultural policies have been implemented to increase crop yield and reduce nitrogen (N) losses to the environment. However, it is difficult to effectively quantify crop-specific and regional N₂O mitigation priorities driven by policies, due to lack of long-term, high-resolution crop-specific activity data, and oversimplified models. Here, we quantify the spatiotemporal changes and key drivers of crop-specific cropland-N₂O emissions from China between 1980 and 2017, and future N₂O mitigation potentials, using a linear mixed-effect model and survey-based data set of agricultural management measures. Cropland-N₂O emissions from China tripled from 102.5 to 315.0 Gg N yr^-1 between 1980 and 2017, and decelerated since 1998 mainly driven by country-wide deceleration and decrease in N rate and the changes in sowing structure. About 63% of N₂O emissions could be reduced in 2050, primarily in the North China Plain and Northeast China Plain; 83% of which is from the production of maize (33%), vegetables (27%), and fruits (23%). The deceleration of N₂O emissions highlights that policy interventions and agronomy practices (i.e., optimizing N rate and sowing structure) are potential pathways for further ambitious N₂O mitigation in China and other developing countries.