Virtual land trade and associated risks to food security in China

International trade can help alleviate the scarcity of arable land by importing agricultural and food products. In the context of climate change and socioeconomic development, the patterns in economic and resource flow embodied in the global food trade may be subject to further changes that present risks for economies with scarce land resources, such as China. These conditions exacerbate ongoing food security challenges, yet have so far not been well understood. Here, we combined the environmentally extended multiregional input-output (EE-MRIO) model, Geopolitical Supply Risk (GeoPolRisk) method, and scenario analysis to provide a comprehensive overview of global, virtual land trade patterns caused by China's food consumption and associated virtual land supply risk faced by China. Our results show that, from 1995 to 2015, China has experienced increasing GeoPolRisk of virtual land supply related to food consumption, roughly fivefold, mainly due to growth in total virtual land consumption and changes in trade structure. From 1995 to 2015, total food consumption-related virtual land in China has increased by approximately 35.1%, and the share of foreign land has increased from 6.3% to 43.3%, with the largest land sources shifting from low-income regions (such as Asia and Africa) to more industrialized regions (such as the United States and Australia). Meanwhile, socioeconomic development and dietary changes are the main antecedents to total virtual land consumption, potentially affecting GeoPolRisk. Our results suggest the need for urgent adjustments for a balanced distribution of virtual land sources and to promote healthy dietary transitions and improve agricultural productivity in the future. Our study offers significant information that can guide potential solutions to the sustainable use of land resources and reduce the GeoPolRisk of virtual land trade for decision-makers, thereby facilitating food security.