Cross-Period Impatience: Subjective Financial Periods Explain Time-Inconsistent Choices

贴现 动态不一致 时间偏好 经济 延迟贴现 跨期选择 时间贴现 结果(博弈论) 双曲线贴现 时间知觉 计量经济学 心理学 精算学 微观经济学 财务 认知 神经科学
作者
Minkwang Jang,Oleg Urminsky
出处
期刊:Journal of Consumer Research [Oxford University Press]
卷期号:50 (4): 787-809 被引量:4
标识
DOI:10.1093/jcr/ucad029
摘要

Abstract Inconsistency in consumer time preferences has been well established and used to explain seemingly short-sighted behaviors (e.g., failures of self-control). However, prior research has conflated time-inconsistent preferences (discount rates that vary over time) with present bias (greater discounting when outcomes are delayed specifically from the present, as opposed to from a future time). This research shows that time-inconsistent preferences are reliably observed only when choices are substantially delayed (e.g., months into the future), which cannot be explained by present bias. This seeming puzzle is explained by a novel cross-period discounting framework, which predicts that consumers are more impatient when choosing between options occurring in different subjective financial periods. As a result, they display inconsistent time preferences and are less willing to wait for an equally delayed outcome specifically when a common delay to both options moves the larger-later option into a subsequent financial period. Six studies and multiple supplementary studies demonstrate that sensitivity to subjective financial periods accounts for time-inconsistent consumer preferences better than current models of time discounting based on present bias.
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