Time Prediction for Landslides with Step-Style Displacement Characteristics

Recently,the landslide forecast is mainly focused on the prediction of the time when the landslide fails.But it is difficult to predict the failure time accurately for the landslides whose displacement shows step-style.Therefore,the displacement prediction is proposed as the target function for this kind of landslide.Firstly,the landslide displacement is divided into two parts,creepage displacement and fluctuation displacement,which are picked up by the twice moving average method.Then,the polynomial fit and grey GM(1,1) model are applied to predict the creepage displacement and fluctuational displacement separately.Finally,the two parts of forecasted displacement are added up and the total landslide displacement is obtained.A typical step-style landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir,Ba Zhimen landslide is taken as study case.This model is verificated with the monitoring data and compared with the predicted results of other forecast models.It is observed that this forecast model can provide a good predicted displacement of the landslides with step-style displacement characteristics.