The Research on the Flooding Disaster in Guanzhong in Recent 200 Years

Through the collection and analysis to the historical materials of the flooding disasterinGuanzhong areain1801-2005,and with7 multinomials in the least squares method,the flooding disaster development tendency in this areain future five years(2006-2010) was forecasted,the time and spatial characteristicsof the flooding disaster in Guanzhong were studiedbyMATLAB.The results showed that flooding disaster of the recent200 yearsaltogether accured 83 times,and averagely occurredone time per 2.47 years.The frequency of flooding disaster increased obviously during 1850-1930,in the 30's of 20th century the frequency of flooding disaster increased obviously,especially in the 1960's.In the five districtsofGuanzhong area,Weinan City suffered the flooding disastermost frequently,Tongchuan did lightly. It was forecasted that therewill have 0.9653 times of flooding disaster in the future 5 years(2006-2010).