National reforestation, regional deforestation? : cross-border trade and forest transition in Vietnam

The Indochina borderlands are characterized by dense forests, which constitute the natural habitat of many animal and plant species. They are the homeland of several ethnic minority groups. The region’s forests are not only subject to conservation policies, but also to various national security concerns. In contemporary Indochina, climate change mitigation projects have brought new opportunities for the three neighbouring countries, Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia, to receive financial support to protect their forests and develop their economies. REDD+ projects are among these climate change mitigation projects. In order to make such projects feasible, scientists working on climate change issues have intensively studied the possibility of leakage, and possible solutions for this problem.\nLeakage may happen at a regional level in the Indochina borderlands. Since the mid-1990s, Vietnam has experienced forest transition; decades of net deforestation were followed by a period of net reforestation. The country’s wood industry has also experienced significant growth. Vietnam confidently proclaims that it is capable of supplying most of its timber demand itself, thanks to good policies in protecting natural forests and planting trees in deforested areas. But reports by NGOs claim that Vietnam has met its timber needs largely by importing illegal wood from Laos and Cambodia. \nUsing a panel dataset for 60 provincial units over the period 2005-2011, this study reports regression results using Tobit models, in an attempt to determine whether the Vietnamese borderland with Laos and Cambodia is actually deforesting (reducing its forests) or reforesting (increasing its forests). A number of factors has been controlled for in the statistical analysis, such as border checkpoint density, population, provincial transparency level, wood production, etc. These factors have a significant impact on either deforestation, or on reforestation, or on both. \nThe main conclusion of this study is that the Vietnamese borderland is subject to less reforestation than other regions in the country and that there is evidence of leakage. When it comes to reforestation and the prevention of deforestation, other regions are more successful. Leakage not only takes place inside the country (i.e., from the coastal area to the borderland), but also happens on a larger, transnational scale, affecting Laos and Cambodia. Legal and illegal wood is imported into Vietnam from Laos and Cambodia, but is then transported further inland, where it is used in the wood processing industries. Most of these industries are located in other regions than the Vietnamese borderland.