Development and Validation of a Radiomics-Based Model for Predicting Osteoporosis in Patients with Lumbar Compression Fractures

Osteoporosis, a metabolic bone disorder, markedly elevates fracture risks, with vertebral compression fractures being predominant. Antiosteoporotic treatments for patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCF) lessen both the occurrence of subsequent fractures and associated pain. Thus, diagnosing osteoporosis in OVCF patients is vital.The aim of this study was to develop a predictive radiographic model using T1 sequence MRI images to accurately determine whether patients with lumbar spine compression fractures also have osteoporosis.Retrospective cohort study.Patients over 45 years of age diagnosed with a fresh lumbar compression fracture.Diagnostic accuracy of the model (area under the ROC curve).The study retrospectively collected clinical and imaging data (MRI and DEXA) from hospitalized lumbar compression fracture patients (L1-L4) aged 45 years or older between January 2021 and June 2023. Using the pyradiomics package in Python, features from the lumbar compression fracture vertebral region of interest (ROI) were extracted. Downscaling of the extracted features was performed using the Mann-Whitney U test and the least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) algorithm. Subsequently, six machine learning models (Naive Bayes, Support Vector Machine [SVM], Decision Tree, Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting [XGBoost], and Light Gradient Boosting Machine [LightGBM]) were employed to train and validate these features in predicting osteoporosis comorbidity in OVCF patients.A total of 128 participants, 79 in the osteoporotic group and 49 in the non-osteoporotic group, met the study's inclusion and exclusion criteria. From the T1 sequence MRI images, 1906 imaging features were extracted in both groups. Utilizing the Mann-Whitney U test, 365 radiologic features were selected out of the initial 1,906. Ultimately, the lasso algorithm identified 14 significant radiological features. These features, incorporated into six conventional machine learning algorithms, demonstrated successful prediction of osteoporosis in the validation set. The NaiveBayes model yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.84, sensitivity of 0.87, specificity of 0.70, and accuracy of 0.81.A NaiveBayes machine learning algorithm can predict osteoporosis in OVCF patients using t1-sequence MRI images of lumbar compression fractures. This approach aims to obviate the necessity for further osteoporosis assessments, diminish patient exposure to radiation, and bolster the clinical care of patients with OVCF.