Trend of PFAS concentrations and prediction of potential risks in Taihu Lake of China by AQUATOX

and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are recognized as emerging environmental pollutants due to their high persistence and toxicities to humans and animals. Understanding the temporal trend of PFAS in the environment is important for their pollution control and making appropriate policies. Many studies have reported the PFAS concentrations in Taihu Lake, the third largest lake in China, while their temporal trend during the years was seldom investigated. This study summarizes the PFAS concentrations in the water, sediment and organisms in Taihu Lake from 2009 to 2020 to depict their temporal trends. Meanwhile, the ecological model of AQUATOX was applied to evaluate and predict the potential risks of PFAS from 2012 to 2030. The results showed that the total PFAS concentrations varied but without distinct increase or decrease in both water and sediment during the years, while PFAS concentrations in organisms significantly decreased. The yearly mean concentrations of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) in the water were 21.7–25.4 ng/L and 9.7–26.5 ng/L respectively, lower than the Standards for Drinking Water Quality of China and the suggested water quality criteria to protect the aquatic organisms. In sediment, PFOA and PFOS concentrations were 0.16–0.69 ng/g and 0.15–0.82 ng/g respectively, much lower than the recommended sediment quality guideline values. Based on the AQUATOX prediction, there will be no major threats caused by PFAS to the growth of biota in Taihu Lake in the near future, while the biomass of some species (e.g. carp) will be affected under the perturbation of PFAS. Both field investigation and AQUATOX simulation showed that PFOS concentrations in invertebrates and fish descend steadily, while no remarkable decrease in PFOA concentrations was expected. This study suggests a decreasing ecological risk of PFAS in Taihu Lake, while highlights the necessity of continuous monitoring of PFAS contamination.