Projection of Automobile Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions with Different Propulsion/Fuel System Scenarios in Beijing

A life cycle analysis method was used to calculate per-kilometer-based fossil fuel energy consumption and CO2emissions of internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) and different types of electric-powered vehicles: hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), and pure electric vehicle (EV) for Beijing. The results show that HEV, PHEV and EV have significant well-to-wheels (WTW) benefits in per-kilometer-based energy saving. Compared with ICEV, HEV, PHEV and EV could reduce 29%, 30% and 40% of per-kilometer-based fossil fuel energy consumption in 2030, respectively. While, the CO2reduction benefits for PHEV and EV are less due to the penalty of CO2emissions from upstream coal power plants. For example, PHEV and EV could only reduce 15%-20% of per-kilometer-based CO2emission relative to ICEV in 2030. We further forecast the total automobile stock in Beijing would reach 8.9-11.0 million by 2030, and four electric-powered vehicle penetration scenarios were designed to evaluate the effect of fleet-based fossil fuel energy saving and CO2emission reduction. The WTW fossil fuel energy consumption with base case scenario will reach peak in 2020, about 480×1015J. The most aggressive scenario (scenario 4) could save 21% of WTW fossil fuel energy compared with base case scenario in 2030. The WTW CO2emission of base case scenario will also reach its peak of 35 million tons around 2020. With the promotion of electric vehicles, scenarios 1 to 4 could reduce 5%-16% of WTW CO2emissions for the Beijing vehicle fleet compared with base case scenario in 2030.