The Impact of Public Transportation on Carbon Emissions—From the Perspective of Energy Consumption

Background: Transportation has become the second-largest source of global carbon emissions. Promoting low-carbon development by means of public transport and green travel and analyzing the mechanism and path of the carbon emissions reduction effect of public transport have become key to reducing carbon emissions in the transportation field and achieving “carbon peak and carbon neutrality”. Methods: The data from 30 provinces (2010–2019) were extracted from China Emission Accounts and Datasets (CEADs), China Energy Statistical Yearbook, China Statistical Yearbook, and China Automobile Statistical Yearbook. The two-way fixed-effect model was used to explore the carbon emissions reduction effect of public transport development level. The mediating-effect model was used to verify the transmission role of energy consumption in the carbon emissions reduction effect of public transport development level. Results: The study suggests that the public transport development level and CO2 emissions are negatively correlated, showing an “Inverted U-shaped” curve relationship. Energy consumption is the transmission path of the carbon emissions reduction effect of public transport development level. The public transport development level adjusts the energy consumption structure through the traffic substitution effect, energy input optimization effect, and industrial structure optimization effect and then acts on carbon emissions. Moreover, the contribution rate of energy consumption is about 4.22%. In addition, regional heterogeneity is present in the transmission path of the carbon emissions reduction effect of public transport development level based on energy consumption. The carbon emissions reduction effect of public transport development level is more significant in the central and western regions than the eastern and northeast regions of China. Conclusion: The transmission mechanism of energy consumption in the carbon emissions reduction effect of public transport is worthy of attention. To promote low-carbon and circular development in the transportation sector, it is urgent to accelerate the green upgrading of transportation infrastructure, promote the low-carbon transformation of energy production and consumption, promote carbon emissions reduction in public transport, and strengthen the linkage regulation between effective government and an effective market.