A Machine Learning–Based Prediction Model for the Probability of Fall Risk Among Chinese Community-Dwelling Older Adults

Fall is a common adverse event among older adults. This study aimed to identify essential fall factors and develop a machine learning-based prediction model to predict the fall risk category among community-dwelling older adults, leading to earlier intervention and better outcomes. Three prediction models (logistic regression, random forest, and naive Bayes) were constructed and evaluated. A total of 459 people were involved, including 156 participants (34.0%) with high fall risk. Seven independent predictors (frail status, age, smoking, heart attack, cerebrovascular disease, arthritis, and osteoporosis) were selected to develop the models. Among the three machine learning models, the logistic regression model had the best model fit, with the highest area under the curve (0.856) and accuracy (0.797) and sensitivity (0.735) in the test set. The logistic regression model had excellent discrimination, calibration, and clinical decision-making ability, which could aid in accurately identifying the high-risk groups and taking early intervention with the model.