Speaking like Humans, Spreading like Machines: A Study on Opinion Manipulation by Artificial-Intelligence-Generated Content Driving the Internet Water Army on Social Media

This study focuses on the evolution of the Internet Water Army on social media, identifying a novel form known as artificial-intelligence-generated-content-enhanced social bots (AESBs), and compares their structural influence with traditional social bots in the context of public opinion guidance. Based on 3 years of real-world data from Weibo, this study develops a comprehensive framework integrating bot account detection, AESB content identification, and quantitative assessments of opinion guidance. A large-scale opinion propagation network is constructed to examine the structural roles of traditional social bots and AESB across three analytical levels: the node, community, and overall network. The results reveal substantial differences between AESB and traditional social bots. Social bots play a limited guiding role but help maintain network connectivity. In contrast, AESBs produce highly consistent and human-like content that demonstrates a significant capacity to reinforce topic focus, amplify emotional homogeneity, and deepen diffusion pathways, indicating a shift toward strategic content manipulation. These results suggest that AESBs are not merely passive generators but active agents of structural opinion control, capable of combining human mimicry with machine-level efficiency. This study advances theoretical understanding of IWA manipulation mechanisms, provides a replicable methodological approach, and offers practical implications for platform governance.