How explain on-grid PV systems diffusion? Review and Application in Brazil

This paper examines the remarkable growth of photovoltaic (PV) solar energy technology in Brazil, which stands out among the leading countries in photovoltaic installations. The recent implementation of Law 14300 on grid-connected PV systems has caused a stir in the Brazilian market, with investors anticipating installations to avoid reductions in benefits. This phenomenon, previously observed in Europe, instigates an understanding of the variables underlying the exponential growth of the Brazilian market. This study seeks to identify the predictors that explain the PV systems diffusion in Brazil, in two stages: a systematic review of the literature to map approaches and methods, followed by the construction of a database and the application of predictive models. The literature revealed 24 methods in six approaches, with 44 predictors. For Brazil, the database contains 90,129 instances, 22 predictors, and covers all 5,570 municipalities. The results highlight the crucial importance of the electricity tariff as the main predictor, followed by irradiation and municipal Gross Domestic Product. Predictors such as the number of companies, minimum wage, HDI education, demographic density, and vehicle fleet prove to be relevant. In conclusion, the spatially explicit analysis highlights the complexity of the market, offering valuable implications for energy planners and stakeholders.