Investigating the causal association of generalized and abdominal obesity with microvascular complications in patients with type 2 diabetes: A community‐based prospective study

Abstract Aim The paradoxical protective association between overweight/obesity and diabetic microvascular complications (DMC), a phenomenon well‐known as the obesity paradox, has been considered a non‐causal association based on methodological influences. We aimed to investigate the association of generalized and abdominal obesity, as measured by body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC), respectively, with DMC in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D), using a causal inference approach. Materials and Methods We enrolled 1436 patients with clinically diagnosed T2D but not DMC at baseline in a community‐based prospective cohort in China between 2017 and 2019 and followed them annually until 2022 with new‐onset DMC recorded. Marginal structural Cox models with inverse probability weighting were constructed to determine the causal association. Subgroup analyses were performed to identify potential effect modifiers. Results We observed 360 incident DMC cases, including 109 cases of diabetic nephropathy (DN) and 277 cases of diabetic retinopathy (DR) during four follow‐up visits. Multivariable‐adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for overall DMC, DN and DR were 1.037 (1.005‐1.071), 1.117 (1.062‐1.175) and 1.018 (0.980‐1.059) for 1 kg/m 2 increase in BMI, and 1.005 (0.994‐1.017), 1.034 (1.018‐1.051) and 1.000 (0.987‐1.014) for 1 cm increase in WC, respectively. Similar patterns were observed across the BMI and WC categories, while the positive association appeared to be more pronounced in women. Conclusions Generalized but not abdominal obesity was associated with an increased risk for the overall DMC, whereas both obesities were causally related to DN, albeit not DR, in T2D. Routine weight management should not be neglected in diabetes care, particularly in women.