Mapping Chinese plastic flows from 2001 to 2040 based on dynamic probabilistic material flow analysis and scenario projection

Plastic waste management, deeply intertwined with our economy, presents a global challenge. Plastic pollution pervades both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. In a vast country like China, establishing a comprehensive plastic flow regime that accounts for socioeconomic disparities between urban and rural areas is essential for effectively reducing s plastic waste. This study aims to map the life-cycle of China's plastic flows from 2001 to 2040, distinguishing between urban and rural sources, through integrating dynamic probabilistic material flow analysis with scenario analysis. The results indicate that from 2001 to 2020, cumulative plastic waste generation was 1001 ± 14.6 million tonnes (Mt), with a higher proportion originating from urban areas (706 ± 10.3 Mt) compared to rural areas (218 ± 3.2 Mt). The rate of increase in mismanaged plastic wastes (MPWs) in rural areas outpaced that in urban areas, peaking in 2016, five years after the peak in urban areas. Consequently, the cumulative total of rural MPWs, including littering (103.5 ± 2.0 Mt) and open dumping (74.8 ± 1.5 Mt), was higher than that in urban areas (littering: 83.0 ± 4.0 Mt; open dumping: 70.3 ± 1.4 Mt). The scenario analysis forecasts a reduction of 96.5 ± 0.4 % and an 83.0 ± 2.1 % in MPW generations in urban and rural areas by 2040, respectively, if all interventions are implemented. However, strategies like reuse&recycling and reduce&substitute are less effective in rural areas compared to urban areas. Therefore, we recommend establishing a collection system with both penalties and incentives to reduce rural MPWs.