Flash floods, land-use change, and risk dynamics in mountainous tourist areas: A case study of the Yesanpo Scenic Area, Beijing, China

Flash floods have caused significant property damage in many mountainous tourist areas around the world. Focussing on the Yesanpo Scenic Area with more than 4.5 million visitors each year and annual tourism revenue of 150 million yuan, flood risk modelling was undertaken using HEC-HMS and FlO-2D. Three flood scenarios (a real event that occurred in 2012, a hypothetical flood in 2017, and a future flood scenario) were evaluated using remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) tools. The results show that from 2012 to 2017, due to the development of tourism and changes in land-use in the area, the flash flood risk increased by 28%. During this six-year period, most of the agricultural land surrounding the Juma River has been changed to tourist use and the land value has increased by 38%. Based on an inundation depth of 0.5 m, land value losses are expected in the order of 104 yuan m−2 for business use land and 0.8 yuan m−2 for agricultural land. Relative to the baseline flood scenario, the flood risk in three studied villages is expected to increase significantly by 103% under the modelled future scenario. Even where disasters have been experienced, risks are often ignored in tourist areas because tourism in these areas can generate high revenue. Our findings provide important new information for tourism planners facing the long-term effects of flash floods. Sustainable planning decisions and flood control measures are required in these mountainous areas that do not affect the amenity value of the natural landscape.