Predictors of variceal bleed among patients with liver cirrhosis in the era of sclerotherapy.

INTRODUCTION: Variceal bleed is a common complication of portal hypertension. The bleed pattern has changed considerably with the introduction of variceal band ligation. The bleed pattern in developing countries where sclerotherapy continues to remain a viable option is not known. The aim of the study was to determine the predictors of first and subsequent bleed in individuals with liver cirrhosis. METHODS: 205 subjects with liver cirrhosis and portal hypertension registered in the liver clinic between January and June 2004, were followed-up for 18 months after registration. Bleeders already on pharmacotherapy or endotherapy were excluded. Patient details included age, gender, duration of illness, aetiology, Child-Pugh-Turcotte score and grades of oesophageal varices, details of index and subsequent variceal bleed, and complications during follow-up. Logistic regression multivariate analysis was applied to predict the factors influencing variceal bleed. RESULTS: There were 95 variceal bleeders and 110 non-bleeders. Age at presentation and gender did not predict a variceal bleed. Grades III and IV oesophageal varices and fundal varices were the significant risk factors for an index bleed (p-value is 0.001). 27 of the 95 bleeders (28.3 percent) had a second bleed after a mean interval of 8 (+/- 7.7) months. Predictors of rebleed were similar to the index bleed. Predictors of index bleed were also similar to those who had bled for the first time after registration. Overall bleed-related mortality was low (2.1 percent). CONCLUSION: Higher grades of varices, presence of cherry-red spots and fundal varices predicted variceal bleed in patients with liver cirrhosis. Variceal bleed-related mortality was low in the era of sclerotherapy.