Land use change induced by the implementation of ecological restoration Programs increases future terrestrial ecosystem carbon sequestration in red soil hilly region of China

Ecological Restoration Programs (ERP) is an effective approach to increase carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems to mitigate climate change, but it’s still controversial whether they are as important to carbon sequestration in areas with higher rainfall and accumulated temperature as they are in areas with low rainfall and accumulated temperature. In this study, we evaluated the influences of ERP on land use change (LUC) and carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems in the red soil hilly region (RSHR) of China with higher rainfall and accumulated temperature. In view of the differences in LUC caused by ERP, the change point of ERP implementation was quantitatively determined in 2000 according to the characteristics of LUC, and divided the ERP implementation period into two stages: the early stage (1985–2000) and the mature stage (2000–2015). The Program Driving Force Model (PDFM) modified in this paper shows that ERP such as the Natural Forest Protection Program implemented in the mature stage has a greater driving effect on land use (+18%). Based on the three carbon pools (above-ground biomass, underground biomass, and soil organic carbon) of the ERP area in the forest land, cultivated land and grassland ecosystem, it is estimated that the total carbon storage of the terrestrial ecosystems generated in the period from 2000 to 2030 amounts to 1057.2 Tg, 65% of which is driven by ERP (691.6 Tg). Our estimates of future terrestrial ecosystem carbon sinks from ERP, reduces further uncertainty to our capacity to predict the future of terrestrial carbon uptake and losses and to China's projected carbon emissions peak in 2030. The quantitative assessment of the driving force of ERP on LUC provides a methodological reference for related researches. The practice of changing land use and increasing carbon sinks through ERP provides guidance for offsetting carbon dioxide emission when China's carbon dioxide emissions is expected to reach the peak by 2030, and striking sustainable development.