LONG-TERM CARE I

Due to lack of long-term care (LTC) insurance in China, Chinese families bear most of the long-term care costs for frail older adults. This study aims to understand the impact of current and future LTC policies on family eldercare hours and costs in China. System dynamics methodology was used to construct a LTC system model in order to analyze and simulate LTC cost-sharing and service allocation models across three different LTC settings (family, community, and LTC facilities). Based on the data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey and other public available data, using variables on time adjustment and LTC insurance, we estimated the impact of LTC policies on family eldercare expenditures and hours respectively. Results showed that both average weekly hours and expenditures for family eldercare are projected to increase approximately 30% from 2015 to 2030 if there is no policy changes. Family eldercare hours and expenditures were significantly reduced by increasing the capacity of nursing home care and community care, and implementing long-term care insurance compensation. This study suggests that policy makers in China should plan the long-term care capacity for elders, and explore the possibility of establishing public long-term care insurance to help Chinese families to meet their LTC needs.