Anomaly-Aware Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction Using Multi-Scale Generative Adversarial Networks

Tropical cyclones (TCs) frequently encompass multiple hazards, including extreme winds, intense rainfall, storm surges, flooding, lightning, and tornadoes. Accurate methods for forecasting TC tracks are essential to mitigate the loss of life and property associated with these hazards. Despite significant advancements, accurately forecasting the paths of TCs remains a challenge, particularly when they interact with complex land features, weaken into remnants after landfall, or are influenced by abnormal satellite observations. To address these challenges, we propose a generative adversarial network (GAN) model with a multi-scale architecture that processes input data at four distinct resolution levels. The model is designed to handle diverse inputs, including satellite cloud imagery, vorticity, wind speed, and geopotential height, and it features an advanced center detection algorithm to ensure precise TC center identification. Our model demonstrates robustness during testing, accurately predicting TC paths over both ocean and land while also identifying weak TC remnants. Compared to other deep learning approaches, our method achieves superior detection accuracy with an average error of 41.0 km for all landfalling TCs in Australia from 2015 to 2020. Notably, for five TCs with abnormal satellite observations, our model maintains high accuracy with a prediction error of 35.2 km, which is a scenario often overlooked by other approaches.