Water-State-Aware Spatiotemporal Graph Transformer Network for Water-Level Prediction

Accurate water-level prediction is a critical component for ensuring safe maritime navigation, optimizing port operations, and mitigating coastal flooding risks. However, the complex, non-linear spatiotemporal dynamics of water systems pose significant challenges for current forecasting models. The proposed framework introduces three key innovations. First, a dual-weight graph construction mechanism integrates geographical proximity with Dynamic Time Warping (DTW)-derived temporal similarity to better represent hydrodynamic connectivity in coastal and estuarine environments. Second, a state-aware weighted loss function is designed to enhance predictive accuracy during critical hydrological events, such as storm surges and extreme tides, by prioritizing the reduction in errors in these high-risk periods. Third, the WS-STGTN architecture combines graph attention with temporal self-attention to capture long-range dependencies in both space and time. Extensive experiments are conducted using water-level data from five stations in the tidal-influenced lower Yangtze River, a vital artery for shipping and a region susceptible to coastal hydrological extremes. The results demonstrate that the model consistently surpasses a range of baseline methods. Notably, the WS-STGTN achieves an average reduction in Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 27.6% compared to the standard Transformer model, along with the highest coefficient of determination (R2≈0.96) across all datasets, indicating its stronger explanatory power for observed water-level variability. This work provides a powerful tool that can be directly applied to improve coastal risk management, marine navigation safety, and the operational planning of port and coastal engineering projects.