初级生产
环境科学
土地覆盖
气候变化
土地利用、土地利用的变化和林业
全球变化
土地利用
森林砍伐(计算机科学)
气候学
生产力
地理
生态系统
生态学
地质学
宏观经济学
计算机科学
程序设计语言
经济
生物
作者
Haiyan Hou,Benliang Zhou,Zhongbo Su,Guohua Hu,Zhongbo Su,Yijian Zeng,Han Zhang,Yukun Gao,Meng Luo,Xia Li
摘要
Abstract Anthropogenic land use/land cover (LULC) change alters terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP), the largest land‐atmosphere carbon exchanges. Identifying the impacts of LULC changes on future terrestrial GPP has been challenging due to the scarcity of standardized future LULC for ecosystem models. Here, we present eight scenario‐based projections of global spatially explicit LULC at 1‐km resolution over the period 2015–2100 with a Future Land Use Simulation model—consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways. Twenty computational experiments with different LULC patterns, climate forcing, and CO 2 concentrations were conducted to quantify their contributions to future GPP dynamics. Results show that the global terrestrial GPP would decline in the 21st century in most LULC scenarios due to urbanization, agricultural expansion, and deforestation. Moreover, the contribution of LULC changes to global GPP dynamics ranges from 3.43% to 10.78% when CO 2 fertilization effect (CFE) is not modeled during 2000–2100 (7%–9% of the terrestrial area is dominated by LULC change). However, this value may range from 10.92% to 16.16% during 2000–2050 and 1.41%–14.57% during 2050–2100. The contribution of LULC even reached 56.08% during 2050–2100 in Southeast Asia due to deforestation. Despite the relatively important role of LULC to GPP dynamics, it becomes trivial globally when incorporating CFE into the model (i.e., LULC accounts for 1.24%–2.51% during 2000–2100). Our findings emphasize the strategic role of CFE in enhancing global GPP and highlight the quantitatively nontrivial role of LULC at the regional scale.
科研通智能强力驱动
Strongly Powered by AbleSci AI