A new algorithm for the detection of seismic quiescence: introduction of the RTM algorithm, a modified RTL algorithm

There are a number of reports on seismic quiescence phenomena before large earthquakes. The RTL algorithm is a weighted coefficient statistical method that takes into account the magnitude, occurrence time, and place of earthquake when seismicity pattern changes before large earthquakes are being investigated. However, we consider the original RTL algorithm to be overweighted on distance. In this paper, we introduce a modified RTL algorithm, called the RTM algorithm, and apply it to three large earthquakes in Japan, namely, the Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake in 1995 ( M JMA 7.3), the Noto Hanto earthquake in 2007 ( M JMA 6.9), and the Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake in 2008 ( M JMA 7.2), as test cases. Because this algorithm uses several parameters to characterize the weighted coefficients, multiparameter sets have to be prepared for the tests. The results show that the RTM algorithm is more sensitive than the RTL algorithm to seismic quiescence phenomena. This paper represents the first step in a series of future analyses of seismic quiescence phenomena using the RTM algorithm. At this moment, whole surveyed parameters are empirically selected for use in the method. We have to consider the physical meaning of the “best fit” parameter, such as the relation of ACFS, among others, in future analyses.