Using machine learning with atomistic surface and local water features to predict heterogeneous ice nucleation

Heterogeneous ice nucleation (HIN) has applications in climate science, nanotechnology, and cryopreservation. Ice nucleation on the earth's surface or in the atmosphere usually occurs heterogeneously involving foreign substrates, known as ice nucleating particles (INPs). Experiments identify good INPs but lack sufficient microscopic resolution to answer the basic question: What makes a good INP? We employ molecular dynamics (MD) simulations in combination with machine learning (ML) to address this question. Often, the large amount of computational cost required to cross the nucleation barrier and observe HIN in MD simulations is a practical limitation. We use information obtained from short MD simulations of atomistic surface and water models to predict the likelihood of HIN. We consider 153 atomistic substrates with some surfaces differing in elemental composition and others only in terms of lattice parameters, surface morphology, or surface charges. A range of water features near the surface (local) are extracted from short MD simulations over a time interval (≤300 ns) where ice nucleation has not initiated. Three ML classification models, Random Forest (RF), support vector machine, and Gaussian process classification are considered, and the accuracies achieved by all three approaches lie within their statistical uncertainties. Including local water features is essential for accurate prediction. The accuracy of our best RF classification model obtained including both surface and local water features is 0.89 ± 0.05. A similar accuracy can be achieved including only local water features, suggesting that the important surface properties are largely captured by the local water features. Some important features identified by ML analysis are local icelike structures, water density and polarization profiles perpendicular to the surface, and the two-dimensional lattice match to ice. We expect that this work, with its strong focus on realistic surface models, will serve as a guide to the identification or design of substrates that can promote or discourage ice nucleation.