Charting sustainable logistics on the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road: a DEA-based approach enhanced by risk considerations through prospect theory

Abstract This study investigates the sustainable logistics potential of countries along the Maritime Silk Road (MSR), an essential element of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), against a backdrop of increasing global emphasis on sustainability and efficient trade practices. Addressing the gap in existing literature, it explores how strategic positioning influences countries’ logistics capabilities, integrating risk considerations and behavioral decision-making aspects into the assessment. Through a specialized Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model that incorporates Prospect Theory, this research provides a nuanced evaluation of economic performance, energy efficiency, infrastructure robustness, governance quality, and innovation capabilities. The analysis reveals significant findings, such as Vietnam’s outstanding economic efficiency, Indonesia’s notable achievements in sustainability and governance, and Malaysia’s balanced efficiency, which collectively enhance the MSR’s logistics framework. Additionally, India, Greece, Djibouti, and Kenya emerge as vital partners due to their diverse strengths. The introduction of a risk-aware DEA model, enriched with behavioral factors, marks a significant advancement in logistics assessment methodologies, offering a more comprehensive understanding of sustainable logistics practices along the MSR. The implications of this study are profound, providing valuable insights for policymakers, investors, and business leaders. It guides strategic decision-making, promoting sustainability in MSR trade activities while aligning with global eco-conscious practices and economic growth within the context of environmental stewardship and sustainable development. However, the research acknowledges limitations related to the indirect measurement of decision-makers’ psychological behavioral coefficients and the focus on efficiency metrics without extensive exploration of cultural, political, or legal factors. This work sets a new precedent in sustainable logistics research, encouraging future studies to incorporate direct behavioral data and qualitative factors for a more enriched evaluation. Its innovative approach not only contributes to the academic discourse on sustainable logistics but also offers practical tools for enhancing the MSR’s trade efficiency and sustainability.