Clinical Utility of a CT-based AI Prognostic Model for Segmentectomy in Non–Small Cell Lung Cancer

Background Currently, no tool exists for risk stratification in patients undergoing segmentectomy for non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Purpose To develop and validate a deep learning (DL) prognostic model using preoperative CT scans and clinical and radiologic information for risk stratification in patients with clinical stage IA NSCLC undergoing segmentectomy. Materials and Methods In this single-center retrospective study, transfer learning of a pretrained model was performed for survival prediction in patients with clinical stage IA NSCLC who underwent lobectomy from January 2008 to March 2017. The internal set was divided into training, validation, and testing sets based on the assignments from the pretraining set. The model was tested on an independent test set of patients with clinical stage IA NSCLC who underwent segmentectomy from January 2010 to December 2017. Its prognostic performance was analyzed using the time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity for freedom from recurrence (FFR) at 2 and 4 years and lung cancer–specific survival and overall survival at 4 and 6 years. The model sensitivity and specificity were compared with those of the Japan Clinical Oncology Group (JCOG) eligibility criteria for sublobar resection. Results The pretraining set included 1756 patients. Transfer learning was performed in an internal set of 730 patients (median age, 63 years [IQR, 56–70 years]; 366 male), and the segmentectomy test set included 222 patients (median age, 65 years [IQR, 58–71 years]; 114 male). The model performance for 2-year FFR was as follows: AUC, 0.86 (95% CI: 0.76, 0.96); sensitivity, 87.4% (7.17 of 8.21 patients; 95% CI: 59.4, 100); and specificity, 66.7% (136 of 204 patients; 95% CI: 60.2, 72.8). The model showed higher sensitivity for FFR than the JCOG criteria (87.4% vs 37.6% [3.08 of 8.21 patients], P = .02), with similar specificity. Conclusion The CT-based DL model identified patients at high risk among those with clinical stage IA NSCLC who underwent segmentectomy, outperforming the JCOG criteria. © RSNA, 2024 Supplemental material is available for this article.