Age-Structured Population Modeling of HPV-related Cervical Cancer in Texas and US

Abstract Human papillomavirus (HPV)–related cervical cancer is a major public health threat to women, with >10,000 new cases diagnosed annually in the United States between 2008 and 2012. Since HPV vaccines can protect against ~80% of HPV-associated cervical cancers, the economic and epidemiological impacts of HPV vaccination have been extensively investigated, particularly at the national level. However, vaccination policies are state-specific, and state-level models are required for state-specific policy decisions. This study adapted an age-structured population model to describe the dynamics of HPV-related cervical cancer in Texas, with model parameters calibrated for Texas. The Year 2000 parameter set was the start point, and the model’s predictions from 2001–2010 were well matched with the real incidence numbers in 23 age groups, suggesting the validity of the model. Application of the model to the Year 2010 parameter set predicted that, over the next 10 decades, incidence would decrease rapidly within the first decade and more slowly thereafter. Sensitivity analysis determined the impact of selected parameters (e.g., vaccine coverage rate) on future disease incidence. When compared with the US parameter sets, the Texas population was more sensitive to changes in HPV transmission and vaccination (e.g., ~8% difference in the predicted disease decline).