Battery recycling and critical material demand in electric vehicle scenarios to 2050

Accelerating electric vehicle adoption creates critical metal supply challenges, particularly for lithium-ion battery materials. This study develops a framework to forecast UK battery material demand to 2050 and the potential contribution of recycling, by integrating material flow analyses under a range of scenarios. The scenario framework incorporates external shocks (e.g. COVID-19 recovery, pre-2030 internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) ban scarcity effects) and integrates four critical dimensions: fleet size dynamics, battery weight strategies, battery chemistry evolution, and recycling technologies. Battery electric vehicles (BEV) are currently observed in the UK to have shorter lifespans on average than ICEVs, 21.5 vs 24.5 years, suggesting first-generation vehicles will reach end-of-life by 2035. Scenario analysis reveals battery chemistry can increase material demand by up to 40%, while fleet growth effects remain limited to 5%. Scenario outcomes diverge dramatically, with LFP adoption and advanced technologies in the best-case scenario fulfilling 100% of cobalt and 81% of nickel demand through recycling by 2050, whilst the worst-case trajectory, driven by NMC-dominant chemistries and autobesity trends, restricts these rates to merely 56% and 42%, respectively. Recycling contributions are forecast to accelerate post-2040 as first-generation BEVs reach end-of-life, potentially supplying 50-100% of material requirements by 2050 depending on the adopted technology pathways. Black mass and refining capacity must scale 15-20-fold from 2030 to 2050, requiring immediate action within the critical 2025-2035 investment window identified across all scenarios. Findings support spokes-and-hubs infrastructure model and similar coordinated recycling strategies and provide a replicable framework for countries undergoing electrification transitions.