Toward carbon neutrality before 2060: Trajectory and technical mitigation potential of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from Chinese agriculture

In 2020, China announced that it aims to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Despite the recognition of agriculture's importance in emission mitigation strategies, assessing the non-CO2 greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potentials from this sector remains technically and conceptually challenging. This study developed a bottom-up inventory-based model (the Agriculture-induced non-CO2 GreenHouse Gases INVentory model) to provide region-specific long-term projections (to 2060) of non-CO2 GHG emissions (including methane and nitrous oxide) from the Chinese agricultural sector. Seventeen production-side technologies were identified that could reduce on-farm emissions, and their mitigation potentials by 2060 were evaluated. Results showed that agricultural non-CO2 GHG emissions rose by 34% from 1980 to 2018, and they are projected to increase further by 33% to reach 1153 MtCO2-eq yr−1 by 2060. Implementing selected technological adaptations could lead to peak agricultural emissions before 2030 and then reduce them by 32%–50% by 2060. The most effective mitigation measures include feed supplements, feed quality improvements, slow-release fertilizers, and improved water management for paddy fields and uplands. All six regions of China will see a gradual increase in agricultural emissions. South Central China and Southwest China have the largest shares of total national emissions and the greatest mitigation potentials. However, technology adoption faces a series of socio-economic obstacles such as the high cost of technology promotion, smaller farm sizes, farmers' aversion to risk, and a complex set of objectives for agriculture.