Exploring potential of urban land-use management on carbon emissions—— A case of Hangzhou, China

Land-use patterns affected carbon emissions, which were influenced by urban land-use management in the long term. However, few studies linked carbon emissions with composite urban land-use management directly, leading to difficulties in reducing carbon emissions by urban land-use planning. Here, we proposed an integrated framework for carbon emissions accounting by land-use types and prediction through urban land-use management including the adjustment of urban growth mode and land-use structure. And the FLUS model and linear programming model were linked in the scenario analysis to predict carbon emissions. Finally, a decoupling model was used to evaluate the effects of urban land-use management on carbon emissions decoupling. A case study was conducted for Hangzhou from 1995 to 2015, showing the differences in carbon emissions in various scenarios for 2035. The results showed: (1) From 2010 to 2015, the carbon emissions of Hangzhou increased by 4.47 times, and it was dominated by the growth of carbon emissions for industrial land. (2) The potential of land-use structure optimization on carbon emissions reductions was from 23.80% to 28.04%, and that of compact urban growth was from 13.72% to 18.5%. (3) Decoupling relationships did not exist between carbon emissions and economic growth, and carbon emissions and urban land growth for all scenarios under urban land-use management in 2035. Our findings proposed an approach to consider practical ways to reduce carbon emissions through land-use management.