Exploring the link between urban topology and street crime using complex networks: a case study from Southeast Brazil

Abstract Crime represents a complex social challenge, and understanding it is a crucial step for implementing effective measures to mitigate this problem. Public security agencies in the state of Minas Gerais, in the southeast of Brazil, currently document the spatiotemporal details of crimes, particularly street crimes, in their reports, enabling comprehensive analysis of these incidents. The aim of our study is to examine, using the provided data by the Military Police of Minas Gerais, the relationship between the urban topology of cities of similar size and the occurrence of street crimes. These cities also share the presence of a medium-sized university population, driven by the presence of significant federal university hubs in each of them. An approach using complex networks and their centrality measures is employed to understand the spatial concentration of street crimes in these cities over the period from 2014 to 2022. The results show, among other findings, that the closeness centrality measure exhibits the highest correlation with areas of criminal concentration. These findings may offer valuable insights into the potential application of complex network analysis for informing public policies and urban planning strategies aimed at enhancing public safety and addressing street crime in similar urban contexts.