Assessment of Ecological Resilience and Identification of Influencing Factors in Jilin Province, China

Jilin Province is an important ecological security barrier and major grain-producing region in northeast China, playing a crucial role in ensuring ecological security and promoting regional sustainable development. This study examines ecological resilience from three dimensions: resistance, adaptability, and resilience. Based on multi-source data from 2000 to 2020, an ecological resilience indicator system was constructed. Spatial autocorrelation and OPGD models were employed to analyze temporal and spatial evolution and the driving mechanisms. The results indicate that ER exhibits an overall spatial pattern of “high in the east, low in the west, and under pressure in the central region.” The eastern mountainous areas demonstrate high and stable resilience, while the central plains and western ecologically fragile regions exhibit weaker resilience. In terms of resistance, the eastern mountainous regions are primarily forested, with high and sustained ESV, while the western sandy edge regions primarily have low ESV, making ecosystems susceptible to disturbance. In terms of adaptability, the large-scale farmland landscapes in the central regions exhibit strong disturbance resistance, while water resource adaptability in the western ecologically fragile regions has locally improved. However, adaptability in the eastern mountainous regions is relatively low due to development impacts. In terms of resilience, the eastern core regions possess stable recovery capabilities, while the central and western regions generally exhibit lower resistance with fluctuating changes. Between 2000 and 2020, the ecological resilience Moran’s I index slightly decreased from 0.558 to 0.554, with the spatial aggregation pattern remaining largely stable. Among the driving factors, DEM remains the most stable. The influence of NDVI has weakened, while temperature (TEM) and NPP-VIIRS have become more significant. Overall, factor interactions have grown stronger, as reflected by the q-value rising from 0.507 to 0.5605. This study provides theoretical support and decision-making references for enhancing regional ecological resilience, optimizing ecological spatial layout, and promoting sustainable ecosystem management.