Bridging Uncertainty in SWMM Model Calibration: A Bayesian Analysis of Optimal Rainfall Selection

SWMM (Stormwater Management Model) is one of the most widely used computation tools in urban water resources management. Traditionally, the choice of rainfall data for calibrating the SWMM model has been arbitrary, lacking clarity on the most suitable rainfall types. In addition, the simplification in the SWMM hydrological module of the rainfall–runoff process, coupled with measurement errors, introduces a high level of uncertainty in the calibration. This study investigates the influences of rainfall types on the highly uncertain SWMM model calibration by implementing the Bayesian inference theory. A Bayesian SWMM calibration framework was established, in which an advanced DREAM(zs) (Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis, Version ZS) sampling method was used. The investigation focused on eight key hydrological parameters of SWMM. The impact of rainfall types was analyzed using nine rainfall intensities and three rainfall patterns. Results show that rainfall events equivalent to a one-year return period (R5, 42.70 mm total depth) or higher generally yield the most accurate parameters, with posterior distribution standard deviations reduced by 40–60% compared to low-intensity rainfalls. Notably, three parameters (impervious area percentage [Imperv], storage depth of impervious area [S-imperv], and Manning’s coefficient of impervious area [N-imperv]) demonstrated consistent accuracy irrespective of rainfall intensity, with a coefficient of variation below 0.05 for Imperv and S-imperv across all rainfall intensities. Furthermore, it was found that rainfall events with double peaks resulted in more satisfactory calibration compared to single or triple peaks, reducing the standard deviation of the Width parameter from 168.647 (single-peak) to 110.789 (double-peak). The findings from this study could offer valuable insights for selecting appropriate rainfall events before SWMM model calibration for more accurate predictions when it comes to urban non-point pollution control strategies and watershed management.